Monthly Market Muhsings - June 2021
Markus Muhs - Jul 05, 2021
Another half a year is in the books.
What a first 6 months, with the S&P 500 up 14.4% YTD.— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) June 30, 2021
The good news is a strong first 6 mos usually means a strong next 6 mos.
When the SPX is up >12.5% YTD at the end of June, the next 6 months are up a median of 9.7%.
That is nearly 2x the median final 6 months for all yrs. pic.twitter.com/lydNpuCCAe
- Page 2 has a 30-year chart highlighting year over year price volatility of industrial materials. Doesn't look that much different than coming out of the last recession, with materials and industrial goods shooting up in price as businesses replenish depleted inventory.
- Page 5 on "Value or growth". Something I've been harping on for a while, how we've seen two very different markets over the past year and a bit (and now we seem to be reverting back to growth). In my Elementum Portfolios I make a conscious effort to keep exposure to these two markets fairly balanced.
- Page 7: while we've devoted so much attention to the leaders in disruption, I think there's plenty opportunity still in traditional companies improving their bottom lines by embracing the same disruption.
- Page 9: while the pandemic has caused a lot of pain and suffering in the short-term, the upside potentially can eclipse that many times over. The 2020s could be to biotechnology what the 2010s were to information technology, or the 1960s to aerospace, all spurred on by the pandemic. By the end of the 2030s perhaps many more lives will be saved, or extended, as a result of the pandemic than were lost. Cap Group expands a bit on it in this article.